Cumberland Straits, is the main channel by which it communicates with the Northern Atlantic. Through these Straits then we assume that Capt. Parry, agreeably to his own expectations and speculations, made good his entrance in the summer of 1821. The question.comes, where is he now ? and what is to become of him? It would indeed be most gratifying, could a reply of definite probability be given to this question; were it but to soothe the mind for a time into tranquillity, and to dissipate a portion of that uneasiness which must otherwise be felt. But this is not to be done, and we must be content with such conjectures as circumstances seem to warrant.

It is quite needless to imagine that they could have got through into Behring's Straits the first season. Such a supposition, though favourable to their object, is fatal to their existence; because they must have been either at home, or heard of, long ago. There can be no hesitation then in rejecting this notion.

The first supposition we shall hazard, then, is, that during the summer of 1821 they found admission somewhere in the vicinity of the channel already specified, and that favoured by their former experience, the accidental openness of the season, the lower degree of latitnde, and other concurrences, and keeping the American coast fast on board, they penetrated to a considerable distance, say beyond the longitude of the Copper Mine River, and that on the return of summer 1822, they recommenced operations, went forward, passing Mackenzie's River, and pushed through into Behring's Straits, either by some outlet north of Cape Prince of Wales, such as Kotzebue's Sound, or by doubling Icy Cape, probably last September. This is clearly the most favourable supposition that can be made. Should it prove correct, we may begin to expect intelligence very soon, or in the course of the ensuing spring, either by the Isthmus of Darien and the West Indies, or we may see them by the East Indies, or Cape Horn, according to the route by which they return, which will doubtless be left to Capt. Parry's discretion.* We cannot anticipate early news by Kamischatka and Petersburg, the journey being so long and tedious.

The supposition now made, however, though a possible case, is a barely possible one. The presumptions are all adverse to it. We have placed our adventurers at the end of the first season beyond the mouth of the Copper Mine River, for the sake of making every allowance, rather than because it is probable they could have reached thus far. The probability is, they did not, and this is corroborated by another probability, that they may have been detained a long time, perhaps nearly a season, in doing little more than finding a channel by which they might advance, as happened to a certain extent in the former voyage,

From this view it is obvious, that the circumstance of our not yet having heard of them ought not, by itself, to occasion the least disquietude.

while exploring Prince Regent's Inlet. In the second place, it assumes the passage to be almost straight, and free, which assumption has little to countenance it. Thirdly, the new and more circuitous route; and although this may be compensated in some degree by a longer season in a lower latitude, and fewer obstructions than in Lancaster Sound, yet the compensation appears scarcely adequate to the purpose. We cannot make out from any satisfactory data the length of the working season under the parallels in question. In lat. 51°, at the south corner of Hudson's Bay, Capt. James found his movements impeded by ice so early as October, and was obliged to lay up for the winter by the end of November; it was June before he could stir, and August before the ship was disentangled, making little more than four clear months, and even during the whole summer, the bay was infested with ice. The entire working period in Lancaster Sound, at least in the meridian of Melville Island, which is exactly that of the Copper Mine River, did not exceed 49 days, according to Capt. Parry. Now the parallels under which we have placed the expedition are upwards of 15° north of Charlton Island, where James wintered, and certainly not more than 7° south of Lancaster Sound. If then we give three complete months for the open working season, it may be all that can well be allowed. If Capt. Franklin was able to survey 500 miles of coast, it would argue to be sure a pretty long season for active operations, though, on the other hand, the winter appears to have set in upon him

so early as the end of August. - But here we are all in the dark, not long to continue so we trust. Fourthly, if they kept hold of the American coast, which Capt. Parry deems essential to success, they might have been seen or heard of by Capt. Franklin, had they penetrated to within even 200 miles of the longitude of the Copper Mine River. Yet this of itself is not much; the natives may have destroyed their signals and beacons ; besides, they might easily pass unseen by Capt. Franklin. Fifthly, admitting that they did get beyond the Copper Mine River the first season, still there is an unexplored way of equal or greater length lying between them and the longitude of Behring's Straits, which would occupy fully as much, if not more time in exploring. At least so we must conceive of it, especially if we keep in mind that the forward advance of one season is no absolute criterion by which we can judge of the advance made in another. Capt. Parry, not having, during the whole summer of 1820, pushed westward 10 miles beyond the spot to which he reached in 1819. Sixthly, there is a fact stated by this able commander, that the quantity of ice kept increasing as they advanced westward; and although he accounts for this with his usual penetration, by the increasing distance from the coast of the ocean, and expects it not to happen after reaching midway, but, on the contrary, that it would decrease as they approached the western sea coast of America, from the well

a

known greater mildness of the temperature on the American than on the Asiatic coast; yet it is difficult to pronounce how far this calculation would be found to agree with actual experience. At all events, the accumulation of ice is likely to be sufficient, even in the lower latitude, to cause much obstruction; and to retard the progress so far, as to induce the necessity of wintering for the second time in these arctic latitudes. And this brings us to the second supposition, which we beg to hazard; namely, that they have proceeded beyond the Copper Mine, or even beyond Mackenzie's River during this last summer (1822), and have pushed forward; but though the passage may event

! ually prove to be pervious, that they have been obstructed by climate, season, and other impediments, before they could launch upon the Pacific by Behring's Straits; and that they are actually now passing the winter at some point short of that desirable goal.' In this case no reasonable fears can be entertained for their safety. The wintering on Melville Island has set this question at rest. If all have gone well with them, not a doubt can arise as to their capability of sustaining another winter in a lower latitude, fortified by two years' experience, and doubtless amply provided. Though the risk to health will of course be somewhat greater (as appears by the reiterated appre hensions of Capt. Parry), yet we may confidently hope, that with the earliest return of summer, they will press forward, and pene trate into Behring's Straits, probably by next August or September (1823). In this case, it will be the end of 1823, or the beginning of 1824, before they, or any intelligence of them, can arrive in this country. This supposition embraces all the probabilities of the former one, with others, and the important adjunct of time superadded.' It is the one to which we most incline, because it seems to meet many of the objections likely to be urged, and it is effectual for the accomplishment of a north-west passage, if such do exist in the direction they may have taken ; while it is consistent with their perfect safety, which more than all is important; even granting that a little beyond the spot where they are now sojourning, they should find themselves impenetrably opposed by ice or land, or to have sought for the passage in a wrong direction, an occurrence, by

way, not unlikely to happen, they may still get back in the course of the ensuing summer; and by October or November, we may hail their arrival.

The next, or third supposition, is not so favourable, involving, as it does, the likelihood of some danger, and the certainty of some difficulty, if not hardship. It is this; suppose, as we have already done, that they last summer reached, and are now wintering somewhere beyond Mackenzie's River, but considera bly short of Behring's Straits ; and suppose that after having resumed their efforts next summer, and proceeded to some disti ance, they should not be so fortunate as to find a channel lower

the

more es

Melville

than Icy Cape, and their attempts to pass that promontory be rendered fruitless by ice; in the same manner as at the end of

Island, though there appeared to be no want of sea ; * and that they should in consequence be obliged to return the way they went: then comes a question, can they retraverse in half a season; nay, perhaps, in little more than the mere remnant of a season, the space advanced in nearly three seasons ?

This question we should hope may be settled in the affirmative, though there be some points connected with it which do not leave us entirely free from doubt. In Lancaster Sound, they sailed back in six days the distance advanced in six weeks, owing to the setting of the current from west to east; so that if upon

a more southerly parallel the current set in the same direction, and with the sale rapidity, we are unwilling to indulge any misgivings as to their ability to effect the run back, and we shall have the satisfaction of welcoming them next autumn; and though ever so unsuccessful, welcome them we shall; for highly as we may be disposed to account the discovery of a north-west passage, we set an incomparably higher price on the lives of Those who have gone in search of it.

But let us imagine unexpected impediments to present themselves ; severity of the weather, change in the direction, or increase in the quantity of the ice, a difference in the set or swiftness of the current compared with that in Lancaster Sound, various localities, and other matters of which we can form no adequate idea, rendering it impossible for them to reach the Atlantic in the course of next season : then comes a serious question, Can they subsist for another or a third winter in the polar regions? Are they supplied with provisions, fuel, and clothing, for this purpose? In the former voyage, they were equipped for two years, which, by the bye, was too short, and had nearly proved so, and shows the calculation to have been defective. For how long they have been this time equipped and victualled, we have not learned,+ and, therefore, can found upon it no calculation. But if the supposition now thrown out should ultimately prove the correctone, it must be three years and a half from the time of their leaving this country before they can revisit the British shores, or obtain a fresh supply; that is, it will be, not next November, but November, 1824, before they come back. This is a long time for fuel and provisions to last. Under the impression that he might be compelled to winter a second time in Lancaster Sound, Capt. Parry put his people to a reduced allowance of every thing; that is, to two-thirds of the usual navy allowance, a measure which led him to entertain some uncomfortable anticipations, regarding its effect on health as well as the effects of so long a deprivation of fresh animal and

aplied

- be

of

more especially of fresh vegetable aliment. The bad consequences of a third winter, therefore, might be fearfully augmented, were there not reason to expect that the supply of game will be more abundant further south than it was in Melville Island. Cartwright, in Labrador, shot plenty of deer and bears, even in the depth of winter, long and severe though it was. There will be besides, somewhat less gloom and darkness, and altogether a shorter winter. There will

, probably, too, be more of esculent vegetables, and we have the satisfaction of knowing, that Donkin's preserved animal food, of which their stock must be abundant, undergoes no deterioration by any length of keeping to which it has yet been subjected. The article of fuel gives us more concern. One thing, however, is certain; that from the skill, prudence, and resource, of the commander; and from the zeal and devotedness of his followers, every thing may be expected. Thus we may still cherish well grounded hopes that they will be able, inured to the climate as they must then be, in some measure, to withstand even a third polar winter, should it be necessary. And this will tend to relieve us from much anxiety as to the preservation of their lives.

The views already taken have gone upon the principle that all is to continue prosperous (God grant it may !), so far as respects their health, subsistence, and means of protection, against the rigour of the climate; and without taking into the account any untoward accident. But let such occur, a deficiency in their resources from damage to the ships, injury to the provisions and stores, sickness disabling them from exertion; what sort of predicament would they then be in! What complicated miseries may they be made to endure ! It is possible, then, and, perhaps, not so improbable as could be wished, that, according to the fourth and last, and worst supposition of all, they may have been overtaken by some calamity; their ships wrecked, or cut up by the ice; their stock of every thing wholly or partially destroyed; themselves thrust out with such means as the moment supplied, to find their way over frozen wastes, in a climate destructive to every thing that lives, save foxes, and wolves, and bears! From such a view, however distant, the imagination involuntarily recoils, and would gladly take shelter, if it could, in the brighter prospects already held out. But difficulties and dangers to be overcome must be looked, as our gallant heroes will look at them, full in the face. Some faint conception may be formed of such a situation from what appears to have befallen Capt. Franklin; with this difference, that their hardships would be enhanced tenfold, inasmuch as they would be ignorant of the country, and unable to avail themselves of its resources. It is then not impossible but that, in the course of the voyage, they may be plunged into this miserable state, perhaps at no great distance from Hudson's Bay; perhaps at some