I.-General Results of the Commercial and Financial History

of 1877.

THE following extracts are from the supplement to the Economist of 9th March, 1878, in continuation of the series of similar notices which have appeared annually in the Journal, dating from 1863:—

"1877 has been a worse year, commercially, than 1876. In 1876 there were some indications that the corrective process rendered necessary by the extravagant heights to which cost of production had been carried in 1871-73 in every department of trade and in every part of the world, had made some progress towards a radical cure. But the experience of 1877 has shown that the evils had penetrated so far into the entire industrial system, that a longer and more severe depression has been required to cure them. There have been special aggravations of distress in 1877, arising (1) from the long political conflict in France between Marshal MacMahon and the Constitutional party; (2) from the severe famine in southern India; (3) from the extending collapse of railway investments in the United States, and the distrust excited by the growing power of the parties there who oppose the resumption of cash payments, and clamour for the repudiation, more or less complete, of public obligations; and (4), above all, from the war between Russia and Turkey, and the extreme uncertainty of all European politics.

"At home we have had a third or fourth bad harvest; cattle plague, and general and real distress among the greatest of domestic interests that of agriculture. The iron trade also has been overtaken by two severe difficulties at the same moment-that is to say, the unusual badness of trade has not only greatly reduced the regular demand for iron manufactures-notably for iron rails-but the rapid development of the production of steel, in better qualities and at lower prices, has virtually superseded a large part of the iron making establishments in the country; thus aggravating a depressed trade by the severe losses arising from the cost and uncertainties of a new manufacture. With a bad iron trade, there has, of course, been a bad coal trade.

"On the Continent, and in the United States, the depression has been even more severe than with ourselves; and France, which had comparatively escaped till 1876, must now be included in the list of distressed countries.

"The harvest of 1877 in these islands was seriously unfavourable, as will appear in detail in the reports given passim, under the head

of the Corn Trade.'

"The prices have been as follows:—

Gazette Average Price of Wheat (per Imperial Quarter) in United Kingdom, immediately after Harvest, 1871-77, und Total Average Gazette Price of Calendar Years.

"In the United States the crops are described as among the most abundant ever yielded, and it has been chiefly by reason of the ample American supplies that the prices on this side have been brought down from 56s. in October to 528. in January (1878). But the farmers are in great distress, and for the first time for several years there are complaints among land agents that eligible tenants for vacant farms are very difficult to get. The potato crop was a very general failure, and the fruit crops were short. Nothing but the free trade in corn and other imports has prevented 1877-78 from being a year of marked scarcity.

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The American Meat Supply, 1877.

During 1877 considerable improvements were thought to be taking place as to the quantity of meat at the disposal of the population of this country, and that it was to prove a great boon in the cheapness of food to all classes. After a fair trial, what is our experience at the results obtained? We fear they are anything but what were expected. True, large quantities of beef came over from New York and Canada, during the first half of 1877; fair in quality and good in condition, but as soon as the weather became hot and unfavourable, its condition deteriorated very much, and a considerable falling off took place, both in the quantity and quality. But the native article has not fallen in price, and we very much regret to say that prospects of a cheaper meat supply are not near

at hand.

"The estimated dead weight of foreign animals imported in ten

months ended 31st October, in 1876, and 1877 respectively, will stand thus:

-

"The total decrease in weight of meat imported as live animals in the last ten months was, according to this estimate, 353,298 cwt., or scarcely more than a fifth below the quantity in the corresponding period of 1876.

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Now, it is very satisfactory to find that this diminution of supply was far more than compensated by a great increase in the arrivals of fresh dead meat. In the ten months we received as follows (in cwts.):

"The following statement seems to place on a scientific basis the popular opinion frequently expressed regarding the greater mildness of the climate of this country, as compared with periods within the recollection of old people:

"Mr. James Glaisher, the secretary of the British Meteorological Society, has furnished a table of meteorological observations extending over a century, which reveal the fact that the climate of these islands is actually becoming warmer year by year, and that this change has been going on for one hundred years. The records from which these conclusions have been drawn are unimpeachable, and so detailed and minute are they, that they cannot possibly be otherwise than accurate. As Mr. Glaisher in his report says, long continuance of frost and frequent falls of snow are facts that can be recorded without instruments as well as with them; and when, in addition to these records, we have the temperature recorded by an instrument so sensitive and delicate as the thermometer, there is no room for doubting the accuracy of the results. Thus, we find, by comparing the later tables with the earlier ones, that our climate in the last hundred years has every year been growing warmer at the rate of about o'11 degree per year; that the

mean temperature of the year is now 2 degrees warmer than it was in 1771; that the month of January is now 3 degrees warmer than it was in any January at the latter end of last century, whilst the winter months are all much warmer, and every month of the year is somewhat warmer than before. The independent observations for the last ten years forcibly confirm the deductions from those of the more extended period I have named. Mr. Glaisher says it now becomes a question whether any part of the world has become 2 degrees colder in its mean annual temperature, or whether the world itself has increased in warmth by 2 degrees. If the latter, some interesting astronomical facts would follow. At present the observations show that the further we go on there is either a steady secular increase in the temperature of the country, or that we are in a long cycle of increasing temperature, out of which we shall probably gradually pass into a cycle of lowering temperatures. In the meantime, the fact being conclusively established that our climate is warmer, advantage should be taken by agriculturists to introduce for culture cereals and vegetables which the colder climate precluded.'

"The following table gives the production of gold and silver in the United States, 1848-77:

Gold and Silver, 1848-77. Production in California and United States, according to Statement of Professor Raymond, United States Commissioner of Mining.

[In Mln. £, (£= $). 0,000's omitted, thus ,01

=

10,000l.]

Note. The figures for 1876 are from the New York Chronicle, 13th January, 1877; for 1877 they are partly estimated.

"The next table gives the usual figures relating to silver sent to the East, &c.

Silver, 1877-66, Shipments to East, Bills Drawn by India Council on India, Imports of Silver into United Kingdom, Average Price in London, and Average Rate of Bank Discounts.

(Pixley and Abell's

"The price has recovered from 52 d. to 543d., and the export to the East has risen, from, say, II million pounds in 1876 to 17 million pounds in 1877, the increase being largely due, it is said, to the Indian famine. Under the head of the Money Market will be found the excellent circular of Mocatta and Goldsmid, bullion dealers. The effect of the re-adoption of silver in the United States will be to raise the price of the metal perhaps rapidly.

Wool.

"Prices.-The course of prices is given under the head of the London and Liverpool sales. Subjoined are the quotations for a few leading descriptions on the 31st December, 1872-77: